National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BOX NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBOX 212049
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
349 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through Southern New England early tonight.
Much colder weather then moves in for Thursday. The front stalls
south of New England Thursday, an area of unsettled weather
moves along the front and across Southern New England. This will
bring a mix of precipitation, with snow and sleet north of the
Mass Pike while rain and sleet falls to the south. An active
wet weather pattern Friday through the weekend during which
there is the possibility of mixed precipitation, freezing rain
late Friday into Friday night and again around Saturday night
into Sunday. Dry weather will follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Dense fog is shifting offshore from west to east. Visibility is
starting to lift along the RI coast, and should do so on Cape
Cod and Islands around 7-8 pm.

Cold front over Eastern NY will move through Southern New
England early tonight. Regional radar shows light showers over
Central NY/NW PA, trailing the front, which trend to western
Mass starting around 6 pm, then southeast across CT through
midnight.

Temperatures behind the cold front reached down to the upper 20s
and 30s, and so this is our forecast for min temps tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front stalls over the Mid Atlantic coast and south of
New England Thursday. High pressure from the Plains then moves
to the Great lakes Thursday, maintaining the colder temps over
our area and setting up a cool northeast flow off the Gulf of
Maine. The right entrance region of the upper jet will be in
position just as this colder air pushes south.

All of this will provide sufficient lift to generate an area of
precipitation that moves up from the Ohio Valley. The challange
with this forecast is determining precip type. No cold air
damming signal in the data. there is just the infiltration of
cold air with the high pressure and the northeast wind off the
marine environment. We are maintaining snow and sleet north of
the Mass Pike and rain south of the Pike and along the eastern
coast.

Accumulations will be light, with the best chance of minor
accumulations across the higher elevations of Northern Mass.

Confidence in precipitation is moderate-high, but confidence in
precip type is low-moderate. As noted on the previous forecast,
a warmer solution would mean more rain and less snow/sleet.

Thursday night...

The precipitation moves offshore, and high pressure builds over
Northern New England. The high center moves to the Maritimes by
12Z Friday with a cold air ridge extending southwest through New
England. Low level moisture lingers over Southern New England,
which should keep clouds south of the Mass Pike overnight.
Northern Mass could have partial clearing for a few hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Burst of precip with wintry mix in the interior Fri night
* Dry but warm as Spring returns on Saturday
* Widespread precip on Sunday with wintry mix in the interior
* Dry weather trend for early next week

Overview...

12z guidance is in general agreement with the extended forecast.
Just some minor differences related to thermals which provide
different outcomes in p-type. Deep trough across the western CONUS
with ridging over the Eastern Seaboard. This puts the region in
southwest flow allowing for Gulf moisture to stream into the area.
Ridge will begin to flatten out as subtropical high begins to
retreat back west towards the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the
period. A few waves of low pressure will move through the flow with
the first one Friday night followed by one on Sunday. Thereafter
pattern begins to breakdown as ridge moves over the Great Lakes
region and cut-off low begins to set-up over the Maritimes. This
could result in a return to average to below avg temps mid to late
next week.

Details...

Friday into Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Retreating high pressure as baroclinic zone remains south of the
region. Dry weather to start but with front near by an approaching
WAA anticipate showers to develop and expand by the late afternoon
hours. Thermals will be tricking as WAA moves through bringing in a
good warm nose per BUFKIT soundings. Biggest question is the surface
temps and if they will warm above freezing as high pressure is
retreating resulting in more of a easterly flow rather than the
classic northerly cold air damming. The GFS appears the warmest of
the guidance in terms of 2M temps keeping p-types as mainly rain.
This does appear to be an outlier compared to the NAM/EC and CMC.
While hi-res data would give this forecast more confidence, appears
that the trend is increasing in a period of freezing rain during the
evening commute, esp in NW interior MA.

Precip will come to an end by the overnight hours as another front
pushes into the region an stalls just south of the area. With this
front near by, a few showers are possible early Saturday morning,
but strong high and ridging overhead will help result in a dry
forecast.

Despite westerly to northwest flow, surface temps could potentially
warm into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. However, depending on
where frontal system stalls, temps could actually rise or fall. Thus
a low confidence forecast for temps on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday...Increasing confidence.

Last wave will eject out of the desert southwest producing surface
low pressure system up into the northern Great Lakes. Another shot of
overrunning precip as warm front approaches from the south. Again
depending on thermals, we could see a chc for freezing rain at the
onset. This system looks to bring the most QPF out of all the system
so expect widespread precip, esp as we continue to tap into that
Gulf moisture. One thing to watch is the development of a surface
low along the front. This could help drag in more cold air from the
north leading to a changeover from rain to sleet/snow on Sunday.
Still some uncertainty with this forecast because of the thermals
in question. But cannot rule out wintry precip during this period.

The front will quickly push through resulting in a drying trend for
late Sunday night.

Monday and beyond...Moderate confidence.

High pressure will build across the region Monday and last into
early next week. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above
average as the pattern begins to shift.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

IFR fog lingers over Cape Cod and Islands in the evening, but should
lift early in the night as winds shift west and northwest. VFR
conditions remainder of Southern New England. Winds shifting
northwest and then north overnight.

Thursday...

VFR in the morning. Winds turn from the northeast. Clouds lower
and thicken as an area of precipitation moves in from the west.
Afternoon cigs/vsbys lower to MVFR in snow/sleet north and
light rain south. Light accumulation possible north of the Mass
Pike.

Thursday night...

Rain/sleet/snow moves offshore along with the low clouds. Most
of the night should be VFR with continued northeast winds.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence TAF. VFR through Thursday
morning. Cigs/vsbys lower to MVFR in the afternoon in rain,
possible sleet toward evening.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR through Thursday
morning. Cigs/vsbys lower to MVFR in the afternoon in rain,
possible mixing with sleet.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. RA, slight chance
FZRA across interior NW MA.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, chance
FZRA across interior NW MA..

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
RA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

Fog is slowly shifting east. This will bring improving vsbys
over the waters this evening and early tonight.

Cold front moves across the waters early tonight, then
stalls south of the waters. Southwest winds shift from the
northwest and then north overnight. Winds gusting near 25 kt
this evening, then 20 knots or less after the front moves
through. Seas at 5 feet will subside overnight. Small Craft
Advisory for wind and rough seas on most waters this evening and
on the outer waters through midnight.

Thursday...

Winds turn from north and then northeast with gusts to 20 knots
at times. Seas mostly below 5 feet, except near 5 feet on the
outer edge of the outer waters. Rain moves in from the west
during midday and afternoon. Could be some mixing with sleet
especially along the North Shore of Mass.

Thursday night...

High pressure centered over Canada moves to Maine and the
Maritimes overnight. Rain moves off to the east. Northeast winds
continue with gusts 20 knots or less. Seas less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temps have been set at all four climate site.
Records for all-February have been set at Hartford and
Worcester.

High temperatures through 3 pm...

Boston.....72..Daily record 63 (1906)..Feb record 73 (2/24/2017)
Hartford...74..Daily record 63 (1930)..Feb record 73 (2/24/1985)
Providence 64..Daily record 63 (1930)..Feb record 72 (2/24/1985)
Worcester..71..Daily record 59 (1930)..Feb record 69 (2/24/2017)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ022>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Dunten
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...WTB/Dunten
MARINE...WTB/Dunten
CLIMATE...

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion