Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232300
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Jul 2017 23:49:27 GMT
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232300
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Jul 2017 23:49:27 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Hilary, located several hundred miles south of Mexico, and on
Tropical Storm Irwin, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GREG (EP2/EP072017)
    ...GREG GROWS A LITTLE BUT STILL PRODUCING 50-MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 the center of GREG was located near 14.4, -130.1 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm GREG

  • Tropical Storm GREG Public Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 232043 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...GREG GROWS A LITTLE BUT STILL PRODUCING 50-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 130.1W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 130.1 West. Greg is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn toward the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but some weakening is likely Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 232043 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 130.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 130.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N 131.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 133.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 135.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.9N 136.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 139.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Forecast Discussion Number 26
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232047 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Greg has had a large burst of deep convection during the past several hours, although cloud tops have begun to warm just recently. A 1748 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 40 kt, but subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have all increased to T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 45 kt, with the assumption that the resolution of the scatterometer missed higher winds. Greg is moving westward, or 270/12 kt, to the southeast of a low- to mid-level anticyclone centered northeast of Hawaii. Although the ridging is not expected to weaken, it is forecast to expand and shift westward, which could allow Greg to turn west-northwestward in about 36 hours. A turn back toward the west is expected by day 4 when it becomes a remnant low and is steered by the low-level trade winds. The track models have moved northward on this cycle, leaving the previous official forecast along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. This necessitated that the new NHC forecast be nudged northward as well, but it is still south of the TVCN multi-model consensus for at least the first 48 hours. The thermodynamic environment appears to be the limiting factor on Greg's intensity, since the vertical shear is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Visible satellite imagery shows a large, stable stratocumulus field out ahead of the cyclone, and lower-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 shows a lot of mid-level dry air. Therefore, Greg is likely to only maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours and then gradually weaken due to the dry air, increasing shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures. No significant changes were required to the NHC intensity forecast, and Greg is still expected to degenerate into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.4N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.8N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.2N 135.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 15.9N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.1N 139.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z 16.3N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 232044 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 135W 34 1 26(27) 30(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GREG Graphics
    Tropical Storm GREG 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 20:50:44 GMT

    Tropical Storm GREG 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 21:22:13 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
    ...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Hilary was located near 13.2, -102.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Hilary

  • Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 102.9W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 102.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 232032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 10
    Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Hilary continues to become better organized on the latest satellite images, with a small central core and a hint of an eye dimple trying to form in the visible channel. A blend of satellite estimates supported around 45 kt at 18Z, but since the satellite presentation has continued to improve, the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt. The storm is forecast to be within a low shear, warm water, and high moisture environment for at least the next couple of days. The SHIPS guidance responds to these conditions by showing a 55-percent chance of a 55-kt increase in winds during the next 48 hours. The favorable conditions above, including the small inner core, strongly points to Hilary rapidly intensifying during that time. Thus, the latest NHC forecast is increased from the previous one, showing rapid intensification, and ends up above the model consensus, but not as high as the HFIP corrected consensus or HWRF models. Late in the period, an increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by outflow from TS Irwin, along with more marginal SSTs should cause some weakening late in the period. Hilary is moving slower now toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt. A ridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction for the next several days, with some increase in speed by 48 hours as the ridge strengthens slightly. Late in the period, there is a possibility of some binary interaction with Irwin, which adds some uncertainty to the track forecast. While some of the model guidance has jumped around during the past 6 hours, the consensus aids are very close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant change has been made to the latest NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.2N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 232033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 23 63(86) 5(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 105W 50 X 41(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 105W 64 X 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 37(45) 23(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 40(47) 3(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 43(68) 3(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 4(40) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) 3(34) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 5(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
    Tropical Storm Hilary 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 20:41:02 GMT

    Tropical Storm Hilary 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 21:28:49 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
    ...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -116.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Irwin

  • Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 116.6W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 116.6 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 232031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 118.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 122.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Deep convection has covered up Irwin's center since the last advisory, a sign that the shear affecting the system continues to diminish. Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, but objective numbers are still at T2.5/35 kt. Based on these estimates, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B pass, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Irwin is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, between Tropical Storms Greg and Hilary and to the south of a weak low- to mid-level ridge extending west of the Baja California peninsula. Since the ridge is expected to remain weak, Irwin is forecast to move only slowly westward through 48 hours. After that time, its motion is likely to become increasingly influenced by Hilary, with the two beginning some degree of a binary interaction. The track guidance now indicates that Irwin will turn west-southwestward on days 3 and 4, and then possibly turn back to the northeast around Hilary's southern side on day 5. With a shift in the overall guidance envelope, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward toward HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus, and it also now shows Irwin stalling or drifting northward on day 5. Irwin is located over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist environment, and the northerly shear affecting the cyclone should continue to decrease over the next day or so. Therefore, additional gradual strengthening is anticipated, and Irwin has the possibility of reaching hurricane strength in about 48 hours. After that time, Hilary (possibly as a major hurricane) will be getting closer to Irwin, and its upper-level outflow could cause stronger shear to develop over Irwin. The intensity guidance has responded to this possibility by showing more pronounced weakening after 48 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast now shows Irwin holding a steady intensity as a tropical storm on days 3 through 5. This forecast remains closest to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.9N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.6N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 14.0N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 14.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 15N 120W 34 1 12(13) 35(48) 25(73) 8(81) 1(82) 1(83) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 13(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
    Tropical Storm Irwin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 20:36:09 GMT

    Tropical Storm Irwin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 21:35:20 GMT ]]>


Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center