Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 242303
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
    ...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.5 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 28
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 49.5W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.5 West. Lee is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected overnight. A turn to the southwest and then west is expected Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 28
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250231 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.5W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.5W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 49.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N 51.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.8N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.8N 54.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.7N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 28
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Lee has been relatively steady state in intensity during the last several hours. The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher at 4.7/82 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 80 kt. Recent ASCAT data confirms that Lee is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center. Although wind shear is expected to remain low near Lee during the next couple of days, the hurricane is likely to be over its own cool SST wake for part of that time. These marginal SSTs and dry air will likely cause the system to change little in strength during the next couple of days. Thereafter, much drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause weakening by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Lee has been drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours in the flow on the south side of a mid- to upper-level trough. The trough is expected to bypass Lee on Monday, allowing high pressure to build to the north of the cyclone. This change in the steering pattern should cause the hurricane to turn westward by Monday night and Tuesday. By mid-week, another trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and this one should cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 31.1N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 31.0N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 30.7N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 30.6N 51.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 30.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 31.8N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 34.7N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 40.0N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250232 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Graphics
    Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:39:13 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:23:19 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
    ...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 30.0, -73.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Maria

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 36
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 36
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250232 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 73.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 73.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 36
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Hurricane Hunter observations indicate that Maria has weakened. Using a blend of flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds along with a dropsonde in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Observations from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of 24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of intensity. These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing and upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the area a little over a week ago. Gradual weakening is anticipated for the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for at least the next few days, however. Based on a number of center fixes from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the motion is northward at a slightly slower speed, or 360/7 kt. Maria is being steered by the flow between a mid-level cyclone near the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge over the northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of days. The global models predict that this ridge will break down by 72 hours, and this should allow Maria to turn to the right as it begins to approach the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the left edge of the numerical guidance, in deference to the reliable ECMWF which is the westernmost of the model tracks. Maria is a large hurricane, so it could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast in a couple of days, even if its center remains well offshore. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight or on Monday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 30.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 33.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 35.2N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 38.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 250233 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 12(26) 4(30) X(30) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 13(29) 4(33) X(33) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 14(32) 4(36) 1(37) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 15(37) 3(40) 1(41) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 7( 9) 20(29) 18(47) 14(61) 3(64) X(64) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 11(27) 11(38) 2(40) X(40) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 5( 8) 16(24) 13(37) 11(48) 2(50) X(50) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 11(31) 11(42) 2(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Graphics
    Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:41:26 GMT

    Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:29:38 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
    Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
    Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:17:52 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:26:44 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:45:52 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at  1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at  1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242303
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.5
 with movement ESE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE HOLDING ITS STRENGTH WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 49.5W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.5 West.  Lee is moving toward
the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is
expected overnight.  A turn to the southwest and then west is
expected Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 250231
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  49.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N  49.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.7N  49.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N  51.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.8N  52.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.8N  54.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.7N  53.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250232
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee has been relatively steady state in intensity during the last
several hours.  The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains distinct,
and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly
symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold.  The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher
at 4.7/82 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held
at 80 kt.  Recent ASCAT data confirms that Lee is a very compact
hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi
from the center.

Although wind shear is expected to remain low near Lee during the
next couple of days, the hurricane is likely to be over its own cool
SST wake for part of that time.  These marginal SSTs and dry air
will likely cause the system to change little in strength during
the next couple of days.  Thereafter, much drier air, a sharp
increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause
weakening by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one and in best agreement with
the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Lee has been drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours in
the flow on the south side of a mid- to upper-level trough.  The
trough is expected to bypass Lee on Monday, allowing high pressure
to build to the north of the cyclone.  This change in the steering
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn westward by Monday night
and Tuesday.  By mid-week, another trough is expected to approach
the hurricane, and this one should cause the system to accelerate to
the northeast over the central Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better
agreement with the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 31.1N  49.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 31.0N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 30.7N  49.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 30.6N  51.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 30.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 31.8N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 34.7N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 250232
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lee Graphics

Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:39:13 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:23:19 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24
 the center of Maria was located near 30.0, -73.0
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 950 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 36

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday.  Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 36

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250232
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  73.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  73.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  72.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.2N  72.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 36

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Hurricane Hunter observations indicate that Maria has weakened.
Using a blend of flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds
along with a dropsonde in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane,
the current intensity is set at 80 kt.  Observations from a NOAA
aircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of
24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of
intensity.  These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing
and upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the
area a little over a week ago.  Gradual weakening is anticipated for
the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is near or
above the latest model consensus.  Maria is expected to remain a
hurricane for at least the next few days, however.

Based on a number of center fixes from the Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters, the motion is northward at a slightly slower
speed, or 360/7 kt.  Maria is being steered by the flow between a
mid-level cyclone near the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the southwestern Atlantic.  A mid-level ridge over the
northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow
some more over the next couple of days.  The global models predict
that this ridge will break down by 72 hours, and this should
allow Maria to turn to the right as it begins to approach the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar to
the previous one and lies near the left edge of the numerical
guidance, in deference to the reliable ECMWF which is the
westernmost of the model tracks.

Maria is a large hurricane, so it could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast in a couple of
days, even if its center remains well offshore.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight or on Monday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through
much of the week.  For more information, please monitor information
from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 30.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 33.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 35.2N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 250233
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   X(17)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   X(23)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  13(21)   5(26)   X(26)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)  12(26)   4(30)   X(30)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)  13(29)   4(33)   X(33)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)  14(32)   4(36)   1(37)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  10(22)  15(37)   3(40)   1(41)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   7(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   7( 9)  20(29)  18(47)  14(61)   3(64)   X(64)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  1   6( 7)   9(16)  11(27)  11(38)   2(40)   X(40)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   5( 8)  16(24)  13(37)  11(48)   2(50)   X(50)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  2   6( 8)  12(20)  11(31)  11(42)   2(44)   X(44)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   5( 6)   8(14)   8(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   7(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Maria Graphics

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:41:26 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:29:38 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:17:52 GMT

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:26:44 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:45:52 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pilar, located near the southwest coast of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific. Some
gradual development of this system is possible before it moves
inland over Central America in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
    ...PILAR JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... ...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Pilar was located near 21.8, -106.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar

  • Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...PILAR JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... ...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 106.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning northward from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya, and discontinued the tropical storm warning south of Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes northward to Bahia Tempehuaya, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 106.3 West. Pilar is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move along or just west of the coast of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Pilar is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa through Monday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in a portion of the warning area. These conditions will gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast overnight and on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM EL ROBLITO TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA... AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 106.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 106.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Satellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength this evening. The center of the system is difficult to locate, but extrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary images suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas Marias. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some of the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could be a little conservative. Pilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the tropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of western Mexico. This land interaction combined with an increase in south-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or less. It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could dissipate sooner than shown here. A long term motion has been northward at 8 kt. A slower north to north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast lies closest to the ECMWF and UKMET models. The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of Sinaloa during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250230 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 27 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MAZATLAN 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics
    Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:36:41 GMT

    Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:35:35 GMT ]]>


Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared



Enhanced Infrared

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center