000ABNT20 KNHC 132338TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Cangialosi

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 04:50:06 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132338
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 14 Jun 2025 04:50:06 GMT

ABPZ20 KNHC 132346
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this 
weekend or early next week near the coast of Central America.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible after that time as it 
moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central America and 
southern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Dalila was located near 15.2, -103.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dalila

• Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140254 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 103.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the west is forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening should begin by Sunday. Dalila is a large storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area and are possible within the watch area tonight and Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......270NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 450SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 040 WTPZ44 KNHC 140255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for this advisory. Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with the latest consensus model trends. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36 hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack through storm dissipation. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 216 FOPZ14 KNHC 140255 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 21 19(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 15 31(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) L CARDENAS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART]]>
• Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:04:39 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT ]]>