000ABNT20 KNHC 241729TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Adams

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:33:22 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Adams

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:33:22 GMT

ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Vance, located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Western Central Pacific:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located 
near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred 
miles west of Johnston Atoll, has become a little better organized 
since yesterday. Environmental conditions could support some 
continued slow development while the system crosses the Dateline and 
moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven]]>

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Vance (EP2/EP222026)
  ...VANCE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM CST Sat Oct 24 the center of Vance was located near 12.9, -103.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Vance

• Hurricane Vance Public Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241453 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Vance Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 ...VANCE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 103.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vance. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 103.0 West. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Sunday. Some re-intensification will be possible beginning Sunday night or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through next Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher totals around 10 inches across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven]]>
• Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241452 TCMEP2 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 103.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.6N 103.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 104.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.7N 104.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.7N 104.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN]]>
• Hurricane Vance Forecast Discussion Number 13
  Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 338 WTPZ42 KNHC 241454 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 The satellite appearance of Vance has deteriorated a bit during the past few hours, likely due to the combined effects of colder sea surface temperatures near the center and increasing southwesterly shear. While the eyewall cloud tops remain quite cold, the eye has become less distinct and the central dense overcast has become more ragged. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and the initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt. The intensity forecast is still problematic and low confidence. Vance is likely to weaken during the next 24 h as it crosses a pool of colder water with temperatures near 27C that has been upwelled by several previous tropical cyclones, and at the same time southwesterly shear is forecast to increase to near 20-25 kt. The cyclone is likely to take 24 h or so to cross the cold pool, then it is expected to move over sea surface temperatures near 29C closer to the coast of Mexico. This should allow intensification if the shear is light enough. The GFS and ECMWF both show a period of reduced, but still marginal, shear that could allow some intensification, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. The new intensity forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast, particularly after 60 h. There are three issues that should be noted for this forecast. First the 06Z GFS calls for Vance to make landfall along the Mexican coast as a hurricane, although at the moment no other guidance explicitly shows this. Second, it is possible that Vance could weaken more than currently forecast during the next 24 h as it passes over the cold pool. Third, it is possible that the shear may increase to the point where no re-intensification could occur, as the UKMET and Canadian models show stronger shear than the GFS and ECMWF. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. Vance is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico, and it is approaching a large mid-latitude trough over the western United States and northwestern Mexico. While neither of these features will change much during the next few days, Vance is likely to move into an area of lighter steering currents near the base of the trough and slow its forward motion during the next 24-36 h. The track forecast after 36 h is dependent on how strong Vance is and how well Vance maintains its vertical structure. A weaker system that shears apart like shown in the UKMET and Canadian is likely to move west-northwestward to northwestward before resuming a more northerly motion, while a stronger and vertically deeper system is likely to continue slowly northward. The new forecast track is on the east side of the guidance envelope near the HFIP corrected consensus, Google DeepMind, and Florida State Superensemble, and it has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Due to the uncertainties in both the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to say what wind and storm surge impacts Vance may cause along the coast of Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during much of next week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 13.6N 103.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 14.6N 103.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 16.7N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 17.7N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 18.7N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven]]>
• Hurricane Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241453 PWSEP2 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 105W 34 2 37(39) 13(52) 2(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 105W 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) 11(38) 3(41) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 10(23) 5(28) 1(29) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN]]>
• Hurricane Vance Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:23:16 GMT ]]>