722
FXUS61 KBOX 231737
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
137 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low finally moves offshore into the Gulf of Maine later
today. Off and on showers today, with winds gradually diminishing
through early afternoon. Temperatures remain on the chilly side
today, but begin to recover for the weekend. Drier weather with
gradually moderating temperatures are on tap for Sunday and
especially Memorial Day when parts of the region may finally see
highs break 70 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM update...

Rain is pulling away from NE MA as coastal low moves slowly
north from the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, mid level low moves
into Maine this afternoon with additional shortwave energy
rotating in from the west. With sufficient moisture in place,
expect scattered showers developing from west to east this
afternoon. Coastal winds will continue to diminish today but
temps will remain well below normal for late May with highs
mostly in the 50s, possibly touching 60 near the south coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Spotty showers likely linger though the early morning hours
Saturday, but not expecting much accumulation out of it. While
we`ll finally see some dry hours in the late afternoon/evening,
skies remain cloudy. Overnight temps tonight into Saturday
closer to normal... around 45 for the interior and near 50 for
the immediate coast, Cape, and Islands. Saturday highs once
again in the high 50s across the CWA, but a chances the more
urban areas could reach 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warmer temps and dry weather will mean Memorial Day is
  generally good for outdoor activities.

* Wet weather returns around mid-week but timing details
  uncertain.

High pressure should build over the northern Great Lakes Sunday
into Memorial Day, before finally moving across New England
Tuesday. A low pressure may approach towards Wednesday, but
there is large uncertainty in the track and timing.

The persistent upper low over northern New England finally moves
into the Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday. Thus begins a
stretch of drier weather into early next week. Still some risk
for stray showers during the afternoon hours across interior
southern New England, but dry weather prevails for most
locations Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures continue to slowly rise with each successive day.
It will likely take until Memorial Day before some locations
start to break 70 degrees for high temperatures again.

As we move into Tuesday, dry weather continues with the warmest
day in a while as the high pressure moves overhead. Beyond that,
another trough takes aim at the northeast, increasing rain
chances for mid week, but confidence in timing and details is
low at this point given model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z Update...

Through Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR cigs with scattered showers developing through this
evening. Cigs improving to VFR tonight south of the MA Pike but
MVFR cigs lingering across northern MA. Winds becoming SW-W 5-10
kt.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

Areas of MVFR cigs during the morning improving to VFR in the
afternoon with VFR persisting Sat night. A few showers possible
during the day. WNW wind gusts to 20 kt, up to 25 kt over the
Islands.

BOS TAF...Mainly MVFR cigs should prevail through tonight,
improving to VFR Sat afternoon. Moderate confidence in a
developing sea breeze around 21-00z.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday: High confidence.

Peak of the winds have passed. Gale Warnings started to be
replaced with Small Craft Advisories across the southern waters.
Will take a little longer across the eastern MA coastal waters
before those can be converted to advisories as well. Rough seas
continue into Saturday across the outer coastal waters. There
may be a brief lull later tonight, but not thinking it will be
of long enough duration to warrant dropping the advisories
across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KJC
MARINE...Belk/McMinn