238
FXUS61 KBOX 221934
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
234 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues this weekend as temperatures moderate to
more normal levels. Above normal temperatures are anticipated
for early to mid week and some locations may reach into the 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday. A few spot showers are possible around
Tuesday, then it gradually turns cooler and more unsettled
toward the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Relatively tranquil weather for late February

High pressure to our south will maintain rather quiet weather
across southern New England. Expecting gusts to diminish into
this evening, even though our region will be on the periphery of
this high pressure. The wind direction should shift to the SW or
WSW also. Also expecting a moisture-starved shortwave to pass
overhead with some clouds later tonight. This is not an ideal
scenario for radiational cooling, but did lean toward the colder
guidance given the solid snowpack. There was not much spread in
the temperature guidance anyway.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Quiet weather continues with periods of clouds at times

High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday, opening
the door for a weak surface trough to enter our region. Not much
moisture to work with, so only anticipating some clouds at
times. Winds should shift more from the W in response to this
trough, meaning it will be up to the late February sunshine to
boost temperatures. There may be a little downslope component to
this, but would feel more strongly about it if winds speeds were
forecast to be slightly higher.

Not much change into Sunday night. Figured some clouds still
hanging around for at least part of the night. Thus, did not go
all-in with radiational cooling. Will see how quickly any
clouds move it. It is possible temperatures will need to be
lowered with later forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warming trend Tues - Thurs

* Several weak shortwaves w/ limited impacts through midweek.

* A cold front brings the return of below average temps late in the
  week through the weekend.

Near zonal flow in the mid-levels will be the main feature for much
of the week ahead. Several weak shortwaves embedded in the flow will
impact the region with light and scattered precipitation. The first
shortwave arrives Monday night into Tuesday with the majority of
precipitation likely staying well north of our CWA. A second
disturbance arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. The final
disturbance of the series arrives with a cold front Thursday
afternoon through Friday.

The first shortwave of the bunch will arrive later Monday with
little in the way of impacts outside of increasing cloud cover and a
slight chance of rain showers north of route 2. Rain showers will be
a bit more widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday as a more robust
shortwave wastes little time with its arrival. The fast moving
nature of the disturbance will mean that it will likely run ahead of
the highest available moisture and so the thinking is that
precipitation will be scattered in nature. The "caboose" of the
shortwave train will likely arrive sometime Thursday afternoon or
overnight.This disturbance will be accompanied by a robust cold
front and therefore the highest confidence of widespread precip. A
more amplified upper air pattern follows on Friday into the weekend
as a deep trough digs across the eastern CONUS. There is a low
probability that the deepening trough results in cyclogenesis near
our CWA later Friday into Saturday.

The much anticipated warm-up in still expected Tuesday through
Thursday. High temperatures Tuesday will range from near 50 on the
coastal plan to the middle 40s further north. A better chance of
overperforming high temperatures on Wednesday as skies clear. The
fly in the ointment comes from some weak CAA behind a dry cold front
Wednesday afternoon. 850 mb temps surge to +1-3C on Thursday ahead
of the cold front. While confidence is rather high in above average
high temps Thursday, there is a question of just how much warming
can occur before frontal passage. An earlier passage would keep
temps below the 50-degree mark throughout the region. Reality
returns Friday into the weekend as a much colder airmass (850 mb
temps of-10 to -15C) builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night...High Confidence.

VFR. WNW 5-10 knots with gusts up to 20 kt, shift to the SW
with diminishing gusts. W winds 5-10 kt Sunday into Sunday
night.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

High pressure passes south of the waters tonight into Sunday.
Winds and seas subside tonight. Still thinking that its marginal
for Small Craft Advisories with gusts around 20 kt. Decided to
not go with headlines with this package. Later forecasts will
reconsider Small Craft headlines as more data comes in.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/KJC/FT
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KJC/FT
AVIATION...Belk/KJC/FT
MARINE...Belk/KJC/FT